The defeat of Saudi Arabia in Syria

4 Mar

by Wassim Raad
PARTNERS | BEIRUT (LEBANON) | 16 FEBRUARY 2014

By Ghaleb Kandil

Syrian opposition is living under the shock of the progress of the Syrian Arab Army in Aleppo, in the countryside of Damascus and Homs province, while the process of reconciliation, which restore the power of the state in the areas bruised by Takfirists groups, is spreading around the capital. Meanwhile, opponents circles in the Arabian Peninsula have explained the reasons behind the royal decree on Saudi terrorists in Syria.
Saudi opponents have revealed that the Saudi regime has received a U.S. warning that the Syrian government has submitted to the Security Council of the United Nations a huge amount of documents and reports on the Saudi involvement in direct support of terrorism in Syria. U.S. officials have warned Riyadh that Russia could rely on this reports to support the Syrian demand to adopt sanctions against all governments involved in supporting terrorism. They added that Washington would not be able to oppose this approach because the fight against terrorism is a priority of its official policy, and any attempt to block the process initiated by Russia et Syria could have serious consequences: 1-The deterioration of relations with Russia; 2-the weakening of international cooperation with U.S. intelligence services in the fight against terrorism, which could bring the specter of terrorist attacks on American soil.
For these reasons, the United States asked Riyadh to take measures giving the impression that the kingdom is fighting terrorism. This will facilitate U.S. efforts aimed at bailing out the regional role of Saudi Arabia and will contain the impact of the US-Saudi failure to destroy the Syrian state.
The Royal Decree was supplemented by the announcement of the Saudi embassy in Ankara that it was prepared to accept armed extremist Saudi fighters in Syria to help them return home.
The order of King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz and the statement of his embassy in Turkey constitute an admission of the presence of Saudi military officers and instructors, members of the security services and the National Guard of the kingdom, on the field in Syria. The Syrian ambassador to the UN, Bashar al-Jaafari, announced the presence of a very large number of Saudi detainees at the hands of Syrian security services. According to credible information, they would be 800 persons.
Some analysts have estimated that the royal decree is an order of repatriation to Saudi soldiers sent by the Saud dynasty to fight with terrorist groups, and a call for Takfirists to continue fighting instead of returning to the country, where they may risk 30 years in prison.
It is in this context that Barack Obama is visiting, in late March, Saudi Arabia. Press information and reports on the visit indicate that the main objective of the U.S. President is to redistribute positions within the Saudi regime after its defeat in Syria. U.S. sources said that the missions of the head of intelligence, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, and Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, are about to be officially terminated. Consultations were held between Riyadh and Washington for new appointments to key positions, which require royal decrees. U.S. media reported that King Abdullah would favor the appointment of ambassador to the United States, Adel al-Joubair, head of intelligence, while his son, Abdel Aziz bin Abdullah al- Saud would succeed al-Faisal. Conflicts within the ruling family is intensifying amid succession struggle after the death of King Abdullah , whose disappearance, according to many experts, could bring back to the surface internal contradictions and trigger a war between the princes of the second generation.
Observers say that the opinion of Barack Obama will be decisive in the redistribution of roles within the royal family, as recommended by the U.S. intelligence services.
Experts argue that the U.S. proposal, sent to Russia to organize a regional meeting on the sidelines of the Geneva II Conference II, aims to help Saudi Arabia to escape the consequences of his actions Syria. The United States has proposed a meeting at expert level between Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia. Iran’s refusal has disappointed U.S. hopes to absorb Saudi failure, trying to anticipate changes on the Syrian field. Especially that the coming weeks will bring new achievements for the Syrian Arab Army, with a new change in the balance in its favor. The confession of the Secretary of State John Kerry about changes favorable to Bachar al-Assad is no longer sufficient. These changes on the ground will pave the way for the reelection of President Assad for a new term, the first after the drafting of the new Constitution.
There is great differences between the winning side, who knows what he wants and expresses the popular will, and facades manipulated by Americans, Saudis and Turks, trying, in vain, to present them ass credible interlocutor.
The defeat of Saud in Syria is the decisive blow to the kingdom of sand, already shaken by deep internal crises.

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